Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Fri Mar 05 17:47:35 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid That's particularly true if you assume, as I do, that the modest turnout swings are probably a function of whatever caused vote switching (though I'm agnostic on how to apportion 'blame' between defund, socialism, stimulus checks, declining immigration salience, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 5, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid I mean if someone specifies it's 'exclusively' switching, then I think it's fair to point out marginal turnout changes. But in the absence of the need to refute an erroneous claim, I think pivoting back to marginal turnout swings probably obscures more than it reveals — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 5, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid @ElectProject Add it to the list! When you lose 10 points, it's probably everything. But emphasizing incumbency, like turnout, stands out mainly for being convenient for progressives, not for its supporting evidence, and that's leaving aside the (downballot) evidence to the contrary — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 5, 2021