Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Fri Mar 05 17:46:48 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid I mean if someone specifies it's 'exclusively' switching, then I think it's fair to point out marginal turnout changes. But in the absence of the need to refute an erroneous claim, I think pivoting back to marginal turnout swings probably obscures more than it reveals — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 5, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid @tbonier c) this philly exercise is an illustration of one fundamental point: while we can note localized turnout stories, the broad national gop gain among latino voters basically requires vote switching, since gop turnout can't produce large swings in overwhelming democratic areas — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 5, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid That's particularly true if you assume, as I do, that the modest turnout swings are probably a function of whatever caused vote switching (though I'm agnostic on how to apportion 'blame' between defund, socialism, stimulus checks, declining immigration salience, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 5, 2021