Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc You can get out of that in several directions. You can return to 2012, where PA/MI/WI/IA move left of center and TX/GA/AZ are right. You can fastforward to the maybe future of TX/GA/AZ/NC as tipping points, but PA/MI/WI/FL are right of center. But Dems are stuck between rn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc i will say, though, that it is fairly difficult for the GOP to lose its EC-PV gap if all of PA, MI, WI, AZ, GA, NC, FL, TX are plausible tipping-point states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc I'm not saying it's almost impossible to change. but it is robust to the swing of a few states, as your initial post implied. it requires broader changes, of the sort we saw between 12-20 and of a sort we could see again — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc no, swinging the map by 5.6 pts has no effect on the EC-PV gap. It remains at 3.9. isolated gains in TX increase the EC-PV gap, due to wasted Dem gains, up until TX supplants WI as the tipping point. Then the EC-PV gap growth resumes once TX becomes too Democratic (past NV) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc i'm pointing out that the EC-PV gap is robust; even a huge movement among the largest battleground state won't break it! but if you don't think they can even pull that off, because, say, you assume the states are random walks, then it's even harder for Dems to breakout! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc i'm leaving the 2020 election unchanged, except changing Biden's vote share in tx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc no, it's true without a uniform swing; in fact, it's wrong if there is a uniform swing, as a uniform swing would have zero effect on the EC-PV gap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc no, it's true without a uniform swing; it's wrong if there is a uniform swing, as a uniform swing would have zero effect on the EC-PV gap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc so winning TX by .5 points doesn't reduce the dem EC-PV gap at all; in fact, it makes it worse if that's the only change you make, since the same shift would expand the Dem lead in the popular vote by some presumably fairly modest amount — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc right but that is subtly different from the EC-PV gap that shor's measuring above. winning a state narrowly may reward you greatly in votes, but only winning a state by more than the prior tipping-point reduces your EC disadvantage v. the popular vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc to undo the disadvantage, they need divergence between those two groups--whether as a result of another round of big gains in the Sun Belt, or another round of big losses in the Midwest, or some mix of the two. or the reverse and back to 2012! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc if dems *badly* lose a state like MI/WI and narrowly win TX, then the EC gap may decline a lot. but so long as both groups of states are competitive, Dems are stuck where they are — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc right, but a world where dems narrowly win TX and lose MI/WI may basically = one where their EC disadvantage is basically in line with the status quo, not improved — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc even the quickest route--Texas--involves Dems gaining another 10 points in the second biggest state and something similar in another state (maybe most likely AZ/GA, given trendline similarities) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc right, but I suppose the implication of my point that this is a surprisingly robust Electoral College advantage. It may be jumpy historically, but you can't move this by moving one big state--you need to move a lot of states around — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc That would either require huge Dem gains in Texas, or it would require Dems losing even more ground in the white north/Midwest--which may be a key part of reducing the EC-PV gap at this point, at least if one assumed big D Sun Belt gains are inevitable (tho maybe they're not) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc If Dem winning TX also involves putting AZ/NV well to the left of the nation as a whole, as it very well might, then Dem gains in TX could reduce the EC gap to zero--but only once they've won TX by the same as the nation as a whole — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc from there, further Dem gains in TX shrink the gap, but only to a point--since Dems didn't win enough EV by more than 4.5 points to win with TX alone. It can only shrink the gap to about 2 points, at which pt NV becomes the tipping point https://t.co/zdGVQfyCLG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc fwiw the bias doesn't go away when dems win TX. it *begins* to shrink once they win TX by at least .6 pts, though note that up until that point Dem gains in TX exacerbate the gap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer mail voting, with no in-person voting options? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer mail voting, where all voters are sent ballots but only one in-person voting site exists per county? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer mail voting, where all voters are sent ballots but only one in-person voting site exists per county? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer a vote-by-mail system, where all voters are sent ballots but only one in-person voting site exists per county? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer mail voting, with one in-person voting site per county? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer in-person voting (including early voting), along with excuse-only mail absentee voting, once the coronavirus pandemic is over? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer in-person election day voting, along with excuse-only mail absentee voting, once the coronavirus pandemic is over? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @xkcd: Solar System Cartogram https://t.co/Xwi175ou14 https://t.co/YsriZLJaY0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Quite a plot twist here https://t.co/xv3g0zmlse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @mattyglesias dark money means money you don't like, afaik — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@GMikeParsons @davidshor @adams_hurta @mcpli @NLVWarren @imillhiser @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @DLind @ProfNickStephan on the other hand, failing to define a clear standard means punting the courts. i think they'll be happy to throw down. — PolitiTweet.org