Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Mon Mar 22 15:44:56 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc no, swinging the map by 5.6 pts has no effect on the EC-PV gap. It remains at 3.9. isolated gains in TX increase the EC-PV gap, due to wasted Dem gains, up until TX supplants WI as the tipping point. Then the EC-PV gap growth resumes once TX becomes too Democratic (past NV) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc i'm pointing out that the EC-PV gap is robust; even a huge movement among the largest battleground state won't break it! but if you don't think they can even pull that off, because, say, you assume the states are random walks, then it's even harder for Dems to breakout! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc I'm not saying it's almost impossible to change. but it is robust to the swing of a few states, as your initial post implied. it requires broader changes, of the sort we saw between 12-20 and of a sort we could see again — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021