Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Mon Mar 22 16:38:50 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc I'm not saying it's almost impossible to change. but it is robust to the swing of a few states, as your initial post implied. it requires broader changes, of the sort we saw between 12-20 and of a sort we could see again — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc no, swinging the map by 5.6 pts has no effect on the EC-PV gap. It remains at 3.9. isolated gains in TX increase the EC-PV gap, due to wasted Dem gains, up until TX supplants WI as the tipping point. Then the EC-PV gap growth resumes once TX becomes too Democratic (past NV) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc i will say, though, that it is fairly difficult for the GOP to lose its EC-PV gap if all of PA, MI, WI, AZ, GA, NC, FL, TX are plausible tipping-point states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021