Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Mon Mar 22 15:18:43 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc right but that is subtly different from the EC-PV gap that shor's measuring above. winning a state narrowly may reward you greatly in votes, but only winning a state by more than the prior tipping-point reduces your EC disadvantage v. the popular vote — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc to undo the disadvantage, they need divergence between those two groups--whether as a result of another round of big gains in the Sun Belt, or another round of big losses in the Midwest, or some mix of the two. or the reverse and back to 2012! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc so winning TX by .5 points doesn't reduce the dem EC-PV gap at all; in fact, it makes it worse if that's the only change you make, since the same shift would expand the Dem lead in the popular vote by some presumably fairly modest amount — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021