Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Mon Mar 22 14:50:39 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc from there, further Dem gains in TX shrink the gap, but only to a point--since Dems didn't win enough EV by more than 4.5 points to win with TX alone. It can only shrink the gap to about 2 points, at which pt NV becomes the tipping point https://t.co/zdGVQfyCLG — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc fwiw the bias doesn't go away when dems win TX. it *begins* to shrink once they win TX by at least .6 pts, though note that up until that point Dem gains in TX exacerbate the gap — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc If Dem winning TX also involves putting AZ/NV well to the left of the nation as a whole, as it very well might, then Dem gains in TX could reduce the EC gap to zero--but only once they've won TX by the same as the nation as a whole — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 22, 2021