Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems to be a *lot* like the other variants, in that it has vastly different effects in different countries based on how they fared with other recent variants, seasonality, and other factors. So if you cherrypick data like this, you can tell whatever story you want. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I think she was a better candidate in the context of 2000 than 2016 and also NY is a relatively good match for her strengths (tends to be pro-establishment, raising money helps there, and she always did pretty well with middle-class nonwhite voters who are plentiful in NY). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If in #PASEN you're looking for evidence about the electoral impact of carpetbagging, worth noting that perhaps the most famous carpetbagger of modern times, Hillary Clinton, considerably underperformed Gore (55-43 vs 60-35) on the ballot even as she beat Lazio in NY in 2000. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp I mean it's basically what happened with Trump, and it's not hard to imagine scenarios where Trump wound up running third party rather than as an R in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To avoid vague verbiage, I'd define "impact" as any of the following if you were setting up a prediction market. https://t.co/NVwDLjfihA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Apart from the fundamental unpopularity of the major political figures (Trump, Biden, Harris) these days, the fact that things look quite unsettled on the D side (prediction markets say >50% that neither Biden nor Harris is nominated!) could make the whole cycle a free-for-all. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How likely is a robust third party movement in America? I don't know. I think empirically-minded folks are a little smug about it, but fairly low. OTOH, how likely is it that some rich businessperson or celebrity could run for POTUS in 2024 and impact the race? Not so low IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Honestly, given the frequent communications failures, the country would probably be better off if the CDC had spent 100x this amount on media training. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss We could get your dad as Schumer though? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss This would be the worst play ever. RECONCILIATION starring MATTHEW BRODERICK as Joe Manchin III and KRISTIN CHENOWETH as Kyrsten Sinema — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Wertwhile Yeah, but I don't even though I'd say it's happened relatively frequently. Like, this sequence isn't really distinguishable from random. https://t.co/9bZG7bzXqL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Wertwhile I don't know exactly, since the model uses a lot of factors in addition to polls and assumes the GOP will outperform its current polling. But ballpark, Democrats might be 2:1 or 3:1 underdogs in the Senate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarcBodnick @mattyglesias 4) I suspect many of the rhetorical techniques you assume would sway a marginal follower's opinion in one direction would not be persuasive to them, or would backfire. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarcBodnick @mattyglesias 1) I'm sure I have followers who believe lots of different things. 2) I'm sure they are pretty anti-GOP *on average* 3) With some exceptions, I don't really see my role as trying to sway my followers' opinion on general interest topics so much as to encourage critical thinking. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It also offers cover for a lot of poor writing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Would the NYTs coverage be improved if it said: "The future of One America News, which established itself as a powerful force in batshit-crazy right-wing extremist media—"? No. It reserves the more invective language for when it has a specific point to demonstrate (about 2020). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't understand complaints like this. * It says "promoting ... outlandish falsehoods" in the same sentence. * The term "conservative" (like liberal) is extraordinarily context-specific. * In the US, the context is many conservatives believe those outlandish claims. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth mentioning that Dobbs isn't the only thing going on. Gas prices are down. Trump is back in the news because of the Jan. 6 hearings and for other reasons. COVID deaths remain toward the lower end since the pandemic began. Wacky GOP candidates are winning primaries. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth mentioning that Dobbs isn't the only thing going on. Gas prices are down. Trump is back in the news because of the Jan. 6 hearings and for other reasons. COVID deaths are remain toward the lower end since the pandemic began. Wacky GOP candidates are winning primaries. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some ways more interesting is the "Classic" version of our model, which doesn't use expert ratings like the default version ("Deluxe") does. That's shown pretty linear improvement for Democrats. https://t.co/ImBoBkGHdD https://t.co/BhfBRiKliY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean...it's not much of an "edge" and the race is still a toss-up, but Democrats' polling has pretty consistently improved post-Dobbs. Even though our model is pretty conservative about accounting for polling movement (it assumes polling shifts in July will revert to the mean). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NateDuncanNBA I think the decision itself. The leak was widely commented upon by political/news junkies, but political/news junkies are almost all strong partisans who aren't swing voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NateDuncanNBA Yeah, although there's pretty good evidence from the polls that it's hurting Republicans in House and Senate races. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @rudnicknoah @JamesSurowiecki @chrislhayes @mattyglesias @ikuziemko I haven't tried to break it down by region. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @rudnicknoah @JamesSurowiecki @chrislhayes @mattyglesias @ikuziemko "Distance from city center" has some explanatory power in regressions, e.g. medium-dense exurbs tend to be quite red but the center of small towns with the same number of people/square mile are quite blue. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @rudnicknoah @JamesSurowiecki @chrislhayes @mattyglesias @ikuziemko I think maybe the various metrics for urbanization don't work that great for places that consist of a lot of small towns, an arrangement that's pretty common in Europe but you don't really get much in the US outside of New England. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It may be increasingly obvious that the Dobbs leak helped conservatives but people's reasons for leaking to reporters aren't always strategic or don't have the consequences they anticipate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's interesting to see the numbers change this quickly but a lot of Biden's appeal in 2020 was based on electability and once the air starts to let out of the balloon—if Democrats start to think someone else has a better shot to beat Trump/DeSantis—it can deflate fast. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And yet, US COVID metrics, though they've gotten a bit worse, are fairly flat (cases only up 10% vs. 14 days ago). Some caveats, but if BA.5 already accounts for 80%+ of new cases, does not seem likely to replicate the worst surges of the past despite "worst variant ever" BS. https://t.co/h5S8g04rKf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean, part of the issue is that Democrats—even in Biden's inauguration speech—portray *every* problem as an existential threat. The party has seemingly become incapable of setting priorities, and that's reflected in Biden's muddled agenda. https://t.co/6DcCz8yRnk — PolitiTweet.org