Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 3, 2022

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Thu Jul 28 19:25:40 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Apart from the fundamental unpopularity of the major political figures (Trump, Biden, Harris) these days, the fact that things look quite unsettled on the D side (prediction markets say >50% that neither Biden nor Harris is nominated!) could make the whole cycle a free-for-all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How likely is a robust third party movement in America? I don't know. I think empirically-minded folks are a little smug about it, but fairly low. OTOH, how likely is it that some rich businessperson or celebrity could run for POTUS in 2024 and impact the race? Not so low IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To avoid vague verbiage, I'd define "impact" as any of the following if you were setting up a prediction market. https://t.co/NVwDLjfihA — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2022