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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 4, 2022

Created

Thu Jul 28 19:56:11 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To avoid vague verbiage, I'd define "impact" as any of the following if you were setting up a prediction market. https://t.co/NVwDLjfihA — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Apart from the fundamental unpopularity of the major political figures (Trump, Biden, Harris) these days, the fact that things look quite unsettled on the D side (prediction markets say >50% that neither Biden nor Harris is nominated!) could make the whole cycle a free-for-all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp I mean it's basically what happened with Trump, and it's not hard to imagine scenarios where Trump wound up running third party rather than as an R in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2022

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