Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2022

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Tue Jul 26 22:36:07 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's interesting to see the numbers change this quickly but a lot of Biden's appeal in 2020 was based on electability and once the air starts to let out of the balloon—if Democrats start to think someone else has a better shot to beat Trump/DeSantis—it can deflate fast. — PolitiTweet.org

CNN poll, registered Ds and D-leaners: “Who do you think the Democratic Party should nominate as the party's candid… https://t.co/F9NQtAfWh8

Posted July 26, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And yet, US COVID metrics, though they've gotten a bit worse, are fairly flat (cases only up 10% vs. 14 days ago). Some caveats, but if BA.5 already accounts for 80%+ of new cases, does not seem likely to replicate the worst surges of the past despite "worst variant ever" BS. https://t.co/h5S8g04rKf — PolitiTweet.org

The BA.5 variant now accounts for 82% of new cases in the United States https://t.co/jjl2AnwOWX https://t.co/8M1MtXtXyu

Posted July 26, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It may be increasingly obvious that the Dobbs leak helped conservatives but people's reasons for leaking to reporters aren't always strategic or don't have the consequences they anticipate. — PolitiTweet.org

It’s increasingly obvious that a conservative leaked Dobbs and achieved their goal of locking in Kavanaugh’s vote.… https://t.co/ifjVdBkgrI

Posted July 26, 2022