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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 1, 2022

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Wed Jul 27 04:26:39 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean...it's not much of an "edge" and the race is still a toss-up, but Democrats' polling has pretty consistently improved post-Dobbs. Even though our model is pretty conservative about accounting for polling movement (it assumes polling shifts in July will revert to the mean). — PolitiTweet.org

Tommy Meyer @TommyzTakes

For the first time the @FiveThirtyEight model shows Democrats with an edge in the race for the Senate https://t.co/bFQ2fI4Ouo

Posted July 27, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NateDuncanNBA I think the decision itself. The leak was widely commented upon by political/news junkies, but political/news junkies are almost all strong partisans who aren't swing voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some ways more interesting is the "Classic" version of our model, which doesn't use expert ratings like the default version ("Deluxe") does. That's shown pretty linear improvement for Democrats. https://t.co/ImBoBkGHdD https://t.co/BhfBRiKliY — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2022