Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Would you rather have had the US had more tests early on, rather than having to play catch-up? Absolutely. But catching up is a lot better than not playing catch-up. And our positive test rate now meets the WHO's benchmark of <=10%. https://t.co/UyndYEZIUu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some cases yes and in some cases no. The testing in many European countries has followed a broadly similar trajectory to the US. Some much better. But some (e.g. the UK) worse. And we've made considerable gains recently, as has the UK. https://t.co/WYlJIfuEyz https://t.co/wNRipLZxEu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie The US and the UK have increased testing a LOT faster than other major NATO countries over the past month and that's likely a big part of why their numbers seem to flat when others are improving. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie That's fair and ideally we'd have had enough testing (+ other countermeasures) early that the outbreak never got so bad to begin with. We totally failed on that front. But we have ramped up testing roughly as fast or faster than European countries that faced comparable outbreaks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Having a positive test rate <=10% is an important benchmark endorsed by the WHO and many epidemiologists, and the US has achieved that on 6 out of the past 7 days now. https://t.co/UyndYEZIUu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Incidentally, New York State's positive test rate is now equal to the country as a whole. Technically speaking *just barely* lower, in fact. It was 7.78% today vs. 7.81% for the US. NYC's positive test rate was 8.6% today, so even the city is basically at the national average. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sundays are often slow days for reporting so expect an uptick on Tuesday, unfortunately. (Monday numbers are often slow also). But still, this is an encouraging report. Among the lowest # of deaths and cases since March. And the lowest positive test rate (7.8%) of any day yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 979 Yesterday: 1,529 One week ago (5/3): 1,158 Newly reported cases T: 22K Y: 25K 5/3: 26K Newly reported tests T: 278K Y: 301K 5/3: 248K Positive test rate: T: 8% Y: 8% 5/3: 11% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while it's almost certain that the peak was *worse* than the confirmed deaths # indicates, it's also possible that we've come down faster from the peak than you'd guess from looking at the day deaths are *confirmed*, which often considerably lags when they actually occurred. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The complicated news: because it takes a long time to count deaths, some of the newly-reported deaths we see each day likely occurred some time ago. Especially if they occurred in nursing homes or private homes. States are working to count/confirm deaths they missed before. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The bad news: most places are *not* counting probable deaths. That means they have an undercount, often a big one, relative to the actual number of COVID-19 deaths. Confirmed deaths is a conservative estimate. This is *not* something worth debating. The evidence is clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Lately, as the epidemic has slowed down in NYC, it has been able to get through the backlog of probable deaths at about the same rate that new probable deaths occur. So probable deaths have remained flat, while confirmed ones grow. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It means it may take quite a bit of time to count *confirmed* COVID deaths. NYC is working through its backlog of *probable* deaths and working to confirm them. Meanwhile, more people are still dying. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2 weeks ago on 4/26, NYC had reported 5,213 *probable* COVID-19 deaths and 11,460 *confirmed* deaths. As of today they have 5,178 probable deaths and 14,753 confirmed deaths. So confirmed deaths are up, but probable ones are flat/down. What's that mean? https://t.co/Zycft46fTy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm There are a lot of reasonable conclusions one might draw ... I'm just warning people away from simple comparisons between "open" and "closed" states, which may not prove to be that revealing for a number of reasons. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looked at in a more systematic way, re-opening per se *probably* does have some effect, but it's marginal; the key determinants are weather, political attitudes, and how bad a state's outbreak was (people are more careful in states where more people died). https://t.co/BK86ORnU87 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of evidence suggests that formal re-opening policies are only loosely correlated with people's behavior. Tennessee (+8%) and Kentucky (+8%) score exactly the same on Apple's mobility tracker even though Tennessee is "open" and Kentucky is "closed". https://t.co/32iSFYgSGd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah I don't totally get it, especially since the improvement in NY has been quite broad (city + suburbs + upstate). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This list is not accounting for testing volume, but you come to similar conclusions about regions where things are getting better/worse if you do account for testing volume, FWIW. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So there are problems in the Midwest, and there are problems in the mid-Atlantic states (MD/DC/DE/VA). Original hotspots are getting better, though numbers in CT and NJ are more stubborn than in NY itself. Not a ton of Southern or Western states on the this list. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Which states had the most new COVID-19 cases per capita reported *yesterday*? (To emphasize: yesterday, NOT cumulative totals.) DC: 288 cases per 1M people reported yesterday SD: 281 NE: 208 MA: 205 RI: 198 IL: 183 MD: 174 DE: 170 CT: 161 NJ: 154 NY: 139 MN: 124 LA: 121 VA: 100 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck I don't know if it's symmetrical, but I think there are arguments that the asymmetries run in either direction. I think the best prior is probably a symmetrical distribution with a wide range and fat tails. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, worth remembering the uncertainty runs in both directions. If Biden leads by ~6 points now, that could easily turn into a 1-point popular vote "win" (= likely Trump Electoral College victory) or a 2-point loss. But it could also turn into a 12-point Biden win, or something. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Herbert Hoover lost by "only" 17 points in a somewhat less partisan epoch than we have today (although the 1930s were decently partisan). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Good news, indeed, and deserves a signal-boost given how many times people re-tweeted scary headlines about "re-infection" and so forth. (Though, note that this doesn't say much either way about how long immunity lasts, just that it's very likely to exist in the short run.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump's numbers on his COVID habdling are currently 43.5% approve and 51.1% disapprove. Have been getting a little worse each week. https://t.co/mnZkHDvJSs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Obama got 66% approval / 16% disapproval in spring 2009 for his response to H1N1. Came early in his term when he was quite popular overall but still, high numbers. https://t.co/zUj15sJ8hr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @joshtpm @Austan_Goolsbee I don't really have the knowledge base to evaluate these theories, but it does seem empirically as though the IFR (even adjusted for age) may vary a fair amount from place to place and there are plausible reasons why that might be the case. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @joshtpm @Austan_Goolsbee In the literature, there are several proposed reasons why IFRs might vary. Hospital capacity is an issue. There could be different strains. It's possible that viral load matters, so that harder-hit places where people are exposed to higher doses could produce more fatalities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DeanBaker13 Fair enough but France and the UK were likely hit a bit harder, as were various countries (Sweden and the Netherlands) that we've done more testing than. And our positive test rate is now <10% which is in line with WHO recommendations. https://t.co/UyndYEZIUu — PolitiTweet.org