Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 28, 2020

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Sun May 10 20:45:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The complicated news: because it takes a long time to count deaths, some of the newly-reported deaths we see each day likely occurred some time ago. Especially if they occurred in nursing homes or private homes. States are working to count/confirm deaths they missed before. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The bad news: most places are *not* counting probable deaths. That means they have an undercount, often a big one, relative to the actual number of COVID-19 deaths. Confirmed deaths is a conservative estimate. This is *not* something worth debating. The evidence is clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while it's almost certain that the peak was *worse* than the confirmed deaths # indicates, it's also possible that we've come down faster from the peak than you'd guess from looking at the day deaths are *confirmed*, which often considerably lags when they actually occurred. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated