Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 28, 2020

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Sun May 10 19:05:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm There are a lot of reasonable conclusions one might draw ... I'm just warning people away from simple comparisons between "open" and "closed" states, which may not prove to be that revealing for a number of reasons. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looked at in a more systematic way, re-opening per se *probably* does have some effect, but it's marginal; the key determinants are weather, political attitudes, and how bad a state's outbreak was (people are more careful in states where more people died). https://t.co/BK86ORnU87 — PolitiTweet.org

Results? The most important variables, as I teased at, are Trump's margin of victory and weather. People are moving… https://t.co/sePvrCxedJ

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2 weeks ago on 4/26, NYC had reported 5,213 *probable* COVID-19 deaths and 11,460 *confirmed* deaths. As of today they have 5,178 probable deaths and 14,753 confirmed deaths. So confirmed deaths are up, but probable ones are flat/down. What's that mean? https://t.co/Zycft46fTy — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated