Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 28, 2020

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Sun May 10 15:45:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck I don't know if it's symmetrical, but I think there are arguments that the asymmetries run in either direction. I think the best prior is probably a symmetrical distribution with a wide range and fat tails. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, worth remembering the uncertainty runs in both directions. If Biden leads by ~6 points now, that could easily turn into a 1-point popular vote "win" (= likely Trump Electoral College victory) or a 2-point loss. But it could also turn into a 12-point Biden win, or something. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Which states had the most new COVID-19 cases per capita reported *yesterday*? (To emphasize: yesterday, NOT cumulative totals.) DC: 288 cases per 1M people reported yesterday SD: 281 NE: 208 MA: 205 RI: 198 IL: 183 MD: 174 DE: 170 CT: 161 NJ: 154 NY: 139 MN: 124 LA: 121 VA: 100 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated