Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 28, 2020

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Sun May 10 15:06:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, worth remembering the uncertainty runs in both directions. If Biden leads by ~6 points now, that could easily turn into a 1-point popular vote "win" (= likely Trump Electoral College victory) or a 2-point loss. But it could also turn into a 12-point Biden win, or something. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Herbert Hoover lost by "only" 17 points in a somewhat less partisan epoch than we have today (although the 1930s were decently partisan). — PolitiTweet.org

The fact that a generic Democrat isn't 30 points ahead of Trump in EVERY state demonstrates the abject failure of t… https://t.co/ruoZZkHBwK

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck I don't know if it's symmetrical, but I think there are arguments that the asymmetries run in either direction. I think the best prior is probably a symmetrical distribution with a wide range and fat tails. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated