Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 28, 2020

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Sun May 10 18:51:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of evidence suggests that formal re-opening policies are only loosely correlated with people's behavior. Tennessee (+8%) and Kentucky (+8%) score exactly the same on Apple's mobility tracker even though Tennessee is "open" and Kentucky is "closed". https://t.co/32iSFYgSGd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah I don't totally get it, especially since the improvement in NY has been quite broad (city + suburbs + upstate). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looked at in a more systematic way, re-opening per se *probably* does have some effect, but it's marginal; the key determinants are weather, political attitudes, and how bad a state's outbreak was (people are more careful in states where more people died). https://t.co/BK86ORnU87 — PolitiTweet.org

Results? The most important variables, as I teased at, are Trump's margin of victory and weather. People are moving… https://t.co/sePvrCxedJ

Posted May 10, 2020 Hibernated