Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like all folks modeling presidential elections, we're forced to use small samples (e.g. n=12) to infer what the broader universe (n=∞) looks like. This is hard! But if you overfit models to past data, you'll often make poor inferences about what unobserved data looks like. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom How does this interact with the supposed heterogeneity in rates of transmission? It seems like "some people have pre-existing resistance/immunity" and "heterogeneity is high" are sort of two sides of the same coin? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One could have a high degree of confidence that Biden will win based on their read of news events (i.e. that COVID ain't going away by November and that Trump will continue to get blamed for it). But polling averages alone do not justify that confidence; Aug. 4 is too early. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure. But we're also in the midst of a global pandemic which is ~unprecedented in recent times, extreme economic volatility, a very high volume of news, and some further uncertainties about how COVID and mail balloting will impact turnout and the actual process of voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing people may not realize, too, is that campaign time is bit nonlinear. Polls don't really get much more predictive in the 3 months from, say, June until August. Then maybe in the last 45-60 days of the campaign, you start to make pretty big accuracy gains. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's still early, folks (although several of these were impacted by convention bounces). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @chrislhayes: Allow me to translate: someone told him that he's scaring his elderly supporters in Florida away from vote-by-mail and it'… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anyway, I talk more about this on our podcast, where I rail a bit against the claim that elections heavily boil down to economic "fundamentals". https://t.co/V3U8lUoMC3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Rather, it's COVID that's Trump's big problem, plus other stuff like his handling of the race relations, overall perceptions of his honesty/competence, etc. For the time being, with money in people's pockets, the economy is one of his lesser concerns. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, if negotiations for the next round of stimulus payments fall apart, that could present big risks for Trump. But I don't buy the story (from other models) that the economy is "dragging down" Trump or makes his re-election very unlikely on its own. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If it seems crazy to treat current economic conditions as tantamount to merely a mild-to-medium-sized recession, take a look at Trump's approval ratings on the economy. He still has 49% approval! He's actually (slightly) net positive! https://t.co/BvgKvmTa3x https://t.co/W5EbZ03cmk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Instead, with the government having put so much money in people's pockets, the index looks more like a league-average recession, which (since most indicators are now improving and/or expected to improve) is now become milder. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The economic index we use in our model has 6 components: —2 of them (inflation, stocks) have been basically "fine" despite coronavirus —3 (jobs, consumption, production) have been absolutely awful. —The 6th (disposable income) has been MUCH BETTER THAN USUAL because of CARES. https://t.co/nBXgTxYg2q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think it should be underestimated how much the CARES Act and the fairly generous stimulus it provided has blunted the economic impact of COVID-19 for the average American. And this has relevance for some of the debate about how economic data is used to forecast elections. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

No one bad take is dispositive—I certainly have had plenty of bad takes myself—but "Kanye West will have a huge impact on 2020" is one of those bad takes that ought to make one wearier of the taker's takes going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It does seem like when we're talking in 5 years about how we got out of this, improvements in indoor ventilation systems could be a huge part of the answer. https://t.co/URmHVW03lo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also: Looks like Florida's numbers will be a bit depressed for a few days here because of the hurricane. https://t.co/eENuVIG36a — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 NEW POD 🎧 -- It's *not just* the economy, stupid (when it comes to forecasting elections) -- The potential consequences… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, per @COVID19Tracking, looks like Florida's numbers are going to be depressed for a bit here because of the hurricane: https://t.co/0QQpclHQb3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

...and we've now gone 9 days in a row with a week-over-week decline in the number of new cases. There is still a *ton* of COVID circulating in the US, though, so a plateau or very gradual decline from very high levels only helps so much. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* Technically, there were 1,059 deaths reported last Monday, but that reflected a one-off adjustment by Texas; it was 428 excluding that. Still, this is one of the more encouraging reports lately. The last two days have featured the lowest positive test rates since late June... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 519 Yesterday: 515 One week ago (7/27): 428* Newly reported cases T: 50K Y: 49K 7/27: 55K Newly reported tests T: 732K Y: 726K 7/27: 761K Positive test rate T: 6.8% Y: 6.7% 7/27: 7.2% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a variation that's both more encouraging and more accurate IMO that gives people a sense of long-term optimism but also reminds them that exact timelines are hard to predict and that a vaccine is just one of the fronts that science/technology are fighting on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm seeing a lot of "don't assume a vaccine is a magic bullet!" stories lately, which seems like a pretty rational assessment. But a lot of them seem intended to encourage people to keep up with other interventions when I wonder if they'll just discourage folks instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CoreyT_WX Ahh yeah, that was it. Thank you! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Did... someone post on here the other day numbers showing what % of voters intended to vote by mail in each state? Or did I dream that? (My dreams are boring tbh.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MichaelVPina: A quick announcement: In addition to covering the NBA for GQ, I'll be contributing a little bit to @FiveThirtyEight. My… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ameliatd: Trump has been talking a lot about crime this summer. That could tap into Americans' inaccurate belief that crime is rising -… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck No, not clear. We have this as not being as bad as 2008. Why? * CARES act means real disposable income has gone WAY UP so far * Stock market has reacted much better than in 2008 * Other measures already recovering and/or forecasted to improve by November. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

*** I'm way late on this today, so please see here for additional details and caveats: most importantly, that Texas's numbers weren't included in the @COVID19Tracking numbers today. https://t.co/5XZIo63FWF — PolitiTweet.org