Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Aug 04 20:37:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom How does this interact with the supposed heterogeneity in rates of transmission? It seems like "some people have pre-existing resistance/immunity" and "heterogeneity is high" are sort of two sides of the same coin? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One could have a high degree of confidence that Biden will win based on their read of news events (i.e. that COVID ain't going away by November and that Trump will continue to get blamed for it). But polling averages alone do not justify that confidence; Aug. 4 is too early. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like all folks modeling presidential elections, we're forced to use small samples (e.g. n=12) to infer what the broader universe (n=∞) looks like. This is hard! But if you overfit models to past data, you'll often make poor inferences about what unobserved data looks like. — PolitiTweet.org

Saved you some time and transcribed Nate's assessment of economic predictive models. I presume this means that 53… https://t.co/av5kijtZ5E

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated