Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Tue Aug 04 17:43:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One could have a high degree of confidence that Biden will win based on their read of news events (i.e. that COVID ain't going away by November and that Trump will continue to get blamed for it). But polling averages alone do not justify that confidence; Aug. 4 is too early. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure. But we're also in the midst of a global pandemic which is ~unprecedented in recent times, extreme economic volatility, a very high volume of news, and some further uncertainties about how COVID and mail balloting will impact turnout and the actual process of voting. — PolitiTweet.org

These numbers show more volatility in earlier years when there were more floating voters/less polarization. That is… https://t.co/n0Suud1wnW

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom How does this interact with the supposed heterogeneity in rates of transmission? It seems like "some people have pre-existing resistance/immunity" and "heterogeneity is high" are sort of two sides of the same coin? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated