Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure. But we're also in the midst of a global pandemic which is ~unprecedented in recent times, extreme economic volatility, a very high volume of news, and some further uncertainties about how COVID and mail balloting will impact turnout and the actual process of voting. — PolitiTweet.org

These numbers show more volatility in earlier years when there were more floating voters/less polarization. That is… https://t.co/n0Suud1wnW

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing people may not realize, too, is that campaign time is bit nonlinear. Polls don't really get much more predictive in the 3 months from, say, June until August. Then maybe in the last 45-60 days of the campaign, you start to make pretty big accuracy gains. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One could have a high degree of confidence that Biden will win based on their read of news events (i.e. that COVID ain't going away by November and that Trump will continue to get blamed for it). But polling averages alone do not justify that confidence; Aug. 4 is too early. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated