Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I can guarantee you I'm not going to be narrating every single poll release from now until Nov. 3. But today has featured a uniquely high volume of polling. It's mostly been quite good for Joe Biden, and these Fox News polls also fall into that category. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @micahcohen: 🚨 BREAKING: Nothing Has Really Changed. 🚨 https://t.co/VpeCVDZCtm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jbarro: This QAnon question everyone is so distressed about is way too descriptive -- asking people their view of "the QAnon theory abo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The CNN and IBD/TIPP polls are among registered voters, others are likely voters. That makes about a 1-point difference this year, so our model treats them more like Biden +7. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

CNN just out with Biden +8, which gives us a pretty good consensus among live-caller telephone polls. https://t.co/dCuxoUFEQG IBD/TIPP: Biden +8 CNN: Biden +8 Quinnipiac: Biden +10 Suffolk: Biden +5/+7 (with/without third parties) Selzer & Co.: Biden +8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So right after an RNC that sorta-kinda-maybe tried to reach out beyond Trump's base, Trump pivots to a message that does GREAT among his white non-college base and HORRIBLY among everybody else, specifically including upscale white voters in the suburbs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And of course, Black and Hispanic voters say Trump makes them feel safe by overwhelming margins. Small sample but Trump is -27 on more safe/less safe among Hispanics in this poll, a bit worse than his overall deficit head-to-head against Biden (-21). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

28% of whites w/ college degrees say Trump makes them feel MORE safe, vs. 59% who say LESS safe. Meanwhile, 52% say Biden makes them feel more safe, vs. 31% less. However, the numbers are almost the reverse of this among whites *without* college degrees. https://t.co/LABsfXALJ9 https://t.co/ISINub2EtS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our national polling average is settling in at Biden +7.5 and is likely to be pretty stubborn against future movement as we've added national polls from *18* different polling firms since the RNC ended. Could still use plenty of state polls; Fox News should have some out tonight. https://t.co/bJ7RqZH1vQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Once again, because the same thing happened in June, pundits' gut feeling that pivoting to LAW AND ORDER would help Trump is not really being borne out in the data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Quinnipiac's generally been one of Biden's better polls all year, but their previous national polls were among registered voters, so to survive the RV to LV crossover at +10 is a pretty decent result for him. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden +10 among likely voters in Quinnipiac's new poll. https://t.co/LABsfXALJ9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Florida also shares a lot in common with the states that have become bluer (coastal! diverse! urbanized!) but it hasn't, really. The world where Florida is slightly to the left of the tipping point instead of slightly to the right looks a lot different, electorally. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this is the counter in the long run. But it doesn't really help Biden in the short run because Texas and Georgia aren't quite close enough to the tipping-point yet. (Arizona *is* near the tipping-point, but it's only 10 electoral votes.) https://t.co/PfW2sxBeD6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Those 5 states account for ~25% of national turnout, so if you improve by an average of say 6 points in them versus Obama in 2008, then you'll gain an extra 1.5 points in the popular vote without helping your Electoral College chances at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The comparison to Obama in 2008 is instructive because Biden is polling at almost exactly Obama's popular vote margin from '08 now (7.5 vs. 7.3 for Biden). But he's added a LOT of votes in these 5 high-population states, plus possibly MD and IL, which have little polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the Electoral College vs. popular vote spread, consider Biden's current polling margin in these 4 states, with a comparison to Obama in 2008: California: +31.5 (+24.0) Massachusetts: +34.1 (+25.8) New York: +26.8 (+26.7) Washington: +26.2 (+17.1) New Jersey +19.5 (+15.5) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you look carefully at the dates here, especially for YouGov and Morning Consult which have polled after the RNC twice, can start to make the case that Trump got a little bounce that's already receding a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bunch more national polls in, a pretty good batch for Biden. YouGov has Biden back up to +11 after having fallen to +6 post-RNC IBD/TIPP (live caller) has Biden +8 (RV) Rasmussen has Biden +4 which is more like 7/8 with their house effect. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/n0tHwm0NaT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You'll sometimes see people say stuff like "Biden MUST with the popular vote by 3 points or he's toast". Not true; at 2-3 points, the Electoral College is a tossup, not necessarily a Trump win. OTOH, the Electoral College is not really *safe* for Biden unless he wins by 5+. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2-3 points: 46% 3-4 points: 74% 4-5 points: 89% 5-6 points: 98% 6-7 points: 99% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten It's all going to come down to the recount in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Arizona also polling at Biden +4.0, so based on polling averages alone, it's basically in a 3-way tie with PA and FL for being the tipping-point state. That could potentially yield this map where Biden wins 270-268. https://t.co/pecIcXjioJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By comparison, he's at +6.2 in Wisconsin and +6.4 in Michigan. I keep waiting for these states to converge (if anything, you might expect PA to be better than WI for Biden) but it hasn't happened yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden now +4.2 in our Pennsylvania polling average, which is now the same as in Florida (+4.2). These are the most common tipping-point states. By comparison, he's at +7.1 in our national average, so we see the same 3-point gap as in 2016. https://t.co/wKbW02AGO5 https://t.co/pGUrl77ncQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BenjySarlin: This seems like a pretty relevant finding from YouGov today https://t.co/OHdhrzhZXF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keep in mind that Monmouth uses pretty small samples (n=400) and they're also not afraid to publish numbers that can diverge from the consensus (i.e. no herding, which is great). So their numbers can bounce around more than most. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not so hot for Biden here, whose Pennsylvania numbers have been worse than you might have expected all year (WI and MI have often been better for him, by comparison). Monmouth's July numbers were an exception to that, but this poll isn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, it's nearly impossible to imagine Trump having the discipline to do this, or taking any ownership over failures. But that doesn't mean the strategy he does choose—vaguely centered on protests/riots but with a million distractions every day—is therefore wise, somehow. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Polls show the public is pretty inclined to be sympathetic to Trump on the economy. Not really on COVID, so they'd have to speak to that and take some ownership, e.g. "this was an unprecedented challenge, we didn't get everything right, but now we've turned the corner." — PolitiTweet.org