Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 21, 2021

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Wed Sep 02 17:26:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Those 5 states account for ~25% of national turnout, so if you improve by an average of say 6 points in them versus Obama in 2008, then you'll gain an extra 1.5 points in the popular vote without helping your Electoral College chances at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The comparison to Obama in 2008 is instructive because Biden is polling at almost exactly Obama's popular vote margin from '08 now (7.5 vs. 7.3 for Biden). But he's added a LOT of votes in these 5 high-population states, plus possibly MD and IL, which have little polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this is the counter in the long run. But it doesn't really help Biden in the short run because Texas and Georgia aren't quite close enough to the tipping-point yet. (Arizona *is* near the tipping-point, but it's only 10 electoral votes.) https://t.co/PfW2sxBeD6 — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 And obviously a lot in AZ/TX/GA, which may or may not pay off.

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated