Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 20, 2021

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Wed Sep 02 17:20:34 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The comparison to Obama in 2008 is instructive because Biden is polling at almost exactly Obama's popular vote margin from '08 now (7.5 vs. 7.3 for Biden). But he's added a LOT of votes in these 5 high-population states, plus possibly MD and IL, which have little polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the Electoral College vs. popular vote spread, consider Biden's current polling margin in these 4 states, with a comparison to Obama in 2008: California: +31.5 (+24.0) Massachusetts: +34.1 (+25.8) New York: +26.8 (+26.7) Washington: +26.2 (+17.1) New Jersey +19.5 (+15.5) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Those 5 states account for ~25% of national turnout, so if you improve by an average of say 6 points in them versus Obama in 2008, then you'll gain an extra 1.5 points in the popular vote without helping your Electoral College chances at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated