Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2021

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Wed Sep 02 16:13:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You'll sometimes see people say stuff like "Biden MUST with the popular vote by 3 points or he's toast". Not true; at 2-3 points, the Electoral College is a tossup, not necessarily a Trump win. OTOH, the Electoral College is not really *safe* for Biden unless he wins by 5+. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2-3 points: 46% 3-4 points: 74% 4-5 points: 89% 5-6 points: 98% 6-7 points: 99% — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bunch more national polls in, a pretty good batch for Biden. YouGov has Biden back up to +11 after having fallen to +6 post-RNC IBD/TIPP (live caller) has Biden +8 (RV) Rasmussen has Biden +4 which is more like 7/8 with their house effect. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/n0tHwm0NaT — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated