Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

All of the little signals that they don't take COVID-19 seriously are damaging from a public health perspective, but likely also politically damaging to Trump and the GOP. Polls make it clear that a majority of Americans know they can't just wish COVID out of their lives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If Biden is truly up by 10-11 nationally, we ought to be seeing a lot of polls where he's up 8-10 in WI/MI/PA or say 7 in AZ/FL or 5-6 in NC. And yes you can find *some* polls like those but the averages have been a point or two lower for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anyway, our national poll average is up to Biden +10.6. I believe that correctly reflects what recent national polls say, more of which show Biden up double digits than not. But the state polls we saw last week would not support that high a margin. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/1a7XgEa8TC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ameliatd: Barrett's nomination isn't the only thing on the line this week. The Supreme Court's reputation is also at stake. Public conf… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looks like IBD/TIPP will be publishing a daily tracking poll the rest of the way, which starts out at Biden +9. Not a good result for Trump given this poll has been one of his best all year; their previous poll, after the debate, had Biden only +3. https://t.co/LLFIaWD93e — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump can still win. But on the other hand, if you're deriving a model from history, it implicitly presumes some baseline level of competence from a presidental campaign that may not be compatible with, say, getting into a public spat with Dr. Fauci 3 weeks out from the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ForecasterEnten: Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936. https://t.co/HYqd0z08uR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pretty much nails it. (Grew up in East Lansing, MI, right in middle of the three cities they highlight.) And there's another hotspot in Chicago, where I lived from 18 to 30. https://t.co/sgUAV2u3ov https://t.co/O94me1cw4G — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I'd have to look this up, but the level of polling is pretty consistent with 2012 and 2016. Perhaps slightly less quantity but slightly more quality this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With that said, the fact that the early voting numbers *do* match the polls is a small sign that the polls are right, if you're trying to think about the possibility of a major systematic polling error. 2/2 https://t.co/Ii5lBCeY9j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think Democrats' lead in the mail vote tells us anything that the polls don't, since the polls project a major D edge in the early and mail vote that will then be partly counteracted by big GOP turnout on Election Day. 1/2 https://t.co/Ii5lBCeY9j https://t.co/xAqPh0nVwC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I mean the best analogy for a Trump comeback at this point is probably 1948, when Dewey was ahead the whole race in polls and there was a 9-point polling error on Election Day. Was just Gallup back then, though, not the tons of polls we have now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I've lost to enough 4-outers on the river to know what it feels like... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even if Trump's chances get down to 5% or something (which they could by Election Day if current polls hold) that's not nothing. Think of all of the changes that we're quite rationally making to avoid COVID-19, which has a ~1% fatality rate (+ ?% of long-term complications). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

BTW, New York's now conducting around 125,000 tests per day, or nearly a million tests a week. There's a lot you can do with that volume of testing that you couldn't with a somewhat lower volume. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New York's back under a 1% positive test rate. So far, containing the outbreak to certain zip codes seems to be working, though we'll have see how well that holds up as it gets colder and more activity moves indoors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: .@NateSilver538: “Donald Trump is rather explicitly going after the senior vote. It’s a group that’s voted Republican in e… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you want to read about why 538 consistently *did* give Trump a decent chance in 2016 when almost nobody else did, we go on at great length about that in this series. https://t.co/PswIaL7Y19 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a vaguely similar sentiment expressed here. However, the point of that passage was that Trump's win actually *wasn't* much of a surprise based on the polls, at least according to 538's model. https://t.co/AaeqjeGR7G https://t.co/dCMXLbRhr4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

[citation needed] — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What if there had been a 3-point swing toward Trump instead? Then we'd be at Biden +4 nationally, and likely at Biden +1/+2 in the tipping-point states. That's a very competitive race, obviously. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other slightly weird aside: the fact that there's been a fairly abrupt 3-point swing toward Biden shows that late polling swings still can occur and so might make you slightly wary of the notion that Biden's had this all in the bag the whole time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, it's worth noting that Biden is now at 52% in national polls and at 50-51% in PA/WI/MI. And there are few undecideds left. So Trump either needs something *major* that causes decided voters to re-evaluate Biden, or a *big* polling error. https://t.co/EE525E9G9V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, Biden's win probability (now 86%) will continue to rise unless we begin to see tightening soon. My guess is that in an election held *today*, the model would have him with a 90-95% chance. It's a big lead that would be pretty robust to some pretty serious polling errors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our *forecast* of the popular vote is Biden +8.2. That's mostly based on state rather than national polls. And it still prices in a tiny bit of tightening/mean reversion. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/gMYz2mYP8m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One silver lining for Trump: the state polls still mostly seem to be in line with an 8-9 point deficit, rather than 10-11 as in national polls. But, there's also been a real lack of high-quality state polls for the past several days, so that may just be a matter of time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's lead in our national polling average is up to 10.3 points. There's no sign that things are getting better for Trump; the ABC/Post poll showing him -12 postdates his leaving the hospital. The USC tracker has also been getting worse for Trump. https://t.co/inxev8aU1X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ordinarily a major national poll showing a candidate 12 points ahead would be huge news, but it's just sort of par for the course these days. A mini-thread with a couple of quick observations, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jodyavirgan: @NateSilver538 https://t.co/28HIIXBInx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AshleyRParker: If Trump had actually tested negative for Covid — and we have no indication that he has — it seems like something he’d w… — PolitiTweet.org