Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Sun Oct 11 13:48:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, Biden's win probability (now 86%) will continue to rise unless we begin to see tightening soon. My guess is that in an election held *today*, the model would have him with a 90-95% chance. It's a big lead that would be pretty robust to some pretty serious polling errors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our *forecast* of the popular vote is Biden +8.2. That's mostly based on state rather than national polls. And it still prices in a tiny bit of tightening/mean reversion. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/gMYz2mYP8m — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, it's worth noting that Biden is now at 52% in national polls and at 50-51% in PA/WI/MI. And there are few undecideds left. So Trump either needs something *major* that causes decided voters to re-evaluate Biden, or a *big* polling error. https://t.co/EE525E9G9V — PolitiTweet.org

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41… https://t.co/6tnodDisiI

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated