Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Sun Oct 11 13:45:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our *forecast* of the popular vote is Biden +8.2. That's mostly based on state rather than national polls. And it still prices in a tiny bit of tightening/mean reversion. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/gMYz2mYP8m — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One silver lining for Trump: the state polls still mostly seem to be in line with an 8-9 point deficit, rather than 10-11 as in national polls. But, there's also been a real lack of high-quality state polls for the past several days, so that may just be a matter of time. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, Biden's win probability (now 86%) will continue to rise unless we begin to see tightening soon. My guess is that in an election held *today*, the model would have him with a 90-95% chance. It's a big lead that would be pretty robust to some pretty serious polling errors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated