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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Sun Oct 11 13:54:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, it's worth noting that Biden is now at 52% in national polls and at 50-51% in PA/WI/MI. And there are few undecideds left. So Trump either needs something *major* that causes decided voters to re-evaluate Biden, or a *big* polling error. https://t.co/EE525E9G9V — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41… https://t.co/6tnodDisiI

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, Biden's win probability (now 86%) will continue to rise unless we begin to see tightening soon. My guess is that in an election held *today*, the model would have him with a 90-95% chance. It's a big lead that would be pretty robust to some pretty serious polling errors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other slightly weird aside: the fact that there's been a fairly abrupt 3-point swing toward Biden shows that late polling swings still can occur and so might make you slightly wary of the notion that Biden's had this all in the bag the whole time. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated