Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Sun Oct 11 16:28:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think Democrats' lead in the mail vote tells us anything that the polls don't, since the polls project a major D edge in the early and mail vote that will then be partly counteracted by big GOP turnout on Election Day. 1/2 https://t.co/Ii5lBCeY9j https://t.co/xAqPh0nVwC — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I mean the best analogy for a Trump comeback at this point is probably 1948, when Dewey was ahead the whole race in polls and there was a 9-point polling error on Election Day. Was just Gallup back then, though, not the tons of polls we have now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With that said, the fact that the early voting numbers *do* match the polls is a small sign that the polls are right, if you're trying to think about the possibility of a major systematic polling error. 2/2 https://t.co/Ii5lBCeY9j — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated