Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 17, 2021

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Sun Oct 11 16:17:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I've lost to enough 4-outers on the river to know what it feels like... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even if Trump's chances get down to 5% or something (which they could by Election Day if current polls hold) that's not nothing. Think of all of the changes that we're quite rationally making to avoid COVID-19, which has a ~1% fatality rate (+ ?% of long-term complications). — PolitiTweet.org

If you rounded the other way, to 1-in-6, you'd have the chances of losing at Russian Roulette. Again, if you were… https://t.co/WaEcyMnCb5

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I mean the best analogy for a Trump comeback at this point is probably 1948, when Dewey was ahead the whole race in polls and there was a 9-point polling error on Election Day. Was just Gallup back then, though, not the tons of polls we have now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 11, 2020 Hibernated