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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @aliciaparlap: We asked officials in every state about their expectations for counting votes on election night (and after) and made a bi… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People overthink certain things. If Biden's favored but not certain to win, I think I/we at 538 need to provide quite a bit of coverage about why Biden's in good shape, while also sometimes discussing the ways that he might lose. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @awprokop: Yeah, this isn't a race where one candidate is leading by 9 points. It's a race where one candidate is leading by 5 in the ti… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A lot of Trump's hope stems from this. Biden's lead isn't *quite* comfortable enough in PA. And although he has some *good* backup plans if he loses PA... namely AZ/FL/NC/GA...he doesn't have a *great* one being ahead only 1-3 points in those states. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
However, you have to be quite creative to come up with maps where Iowa is the tipping point. Possibly something like this, where Biden does well in the Upper Midwest but struggles in the Northeast and loses PA/NH/ME-2. https://t.co/EipfKoXv4S — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Iowa is the another state where polls have taken a pro-Biden turn lately though he has a small lead at best. But this is interesting since the "don't trust the polls" line is usually something a campaign says when it's well behind in a state. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Weigel @daveweigel
I’m at a Don Jr rally in Cedar Rapids where Sonny Perdue is warming the crowd up by telling how the polls were wron… https://t.co/73vnLN2T2i
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Georgia has a different mix of pollsters than the other states — fewer of the usual suspects and more one-offs — so it's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison. Still, can understand why the campaigns are spending resources there. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Really not much of a difference between the polling averages in Georgia (Biden +1.2), Florida (Biden +2.0) and North Carolina (Biden +2.0) right now. https://t.co/VYrvEGxHXu — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There's no sign of tightening. Also no sign of widening. We have 34 post-debate polls, and the average change is ... 0.1 points toward Trump. https://t.co/9AeTKX5o0O https://t.co/mzdoJ2nBvA — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A lot of strength for Biden in the Upper Midwest (IA/WI/MN/MI) in this recent round of surveys and one starts to wonder whether this is a part of the reason why: https://t.co/Ppvm7jZzpT https://t.co/fm5YyV0WHh — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@IChotiner Never mind am reliably told I got this wrong and they don't use the asterisk in the same way that we do. (Apparently it means a poll w/3rd parties.) My bad here. https://t.co/BWKwBSkZGG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@IChotiner No partisan asterisk for Rasmussen but yes for CNN! — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So while far more Democrats plan to vote by mail, it's not as clear they'll have that many more "at risk" mail ballots since they're considerably more inclined to send them in sooner, or to drop them off. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
From the ABC/WaPo poll the other week... Democrats are considerably more likely to say that they plan to drop off a mail ballot as opposed to Republicans. https://t.co/frEIin10r5 https://t.co/0fSigNlXrq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Always the same stupid shit in the final 10 days of the campaign. Some of it's from good people who are just getting competitive or stressed out or whatever. But the absolute worst people are always their absolute worstest at this point in time. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @DKThomp: Trump's odds of winning the election are 300% higher than his odds of winning the popular vote. https://t.co/Q0qChgdH7J — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Maybe it makes sense. CA is more of a Clinton coalition state than a Biden coalition one, given his somewhat weak performance with Hispanics. But also, polls underestimated Dems in CA in 2016/18 and I'm not sure pollsters care enough about it to have fixed things. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One state that's more important than you'd think for figuring out the relationship between the Electoral College and the popular vote is... California. Clinton won it by 30.1 points whereas Biden's lead in our polling average is "only" 29.6. https://t.co/mlXI3zKjGt https://t.co/wNQ8E3XInN — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
However, Biden actually has decent chances if he loses PA, provided that he wins MI/WI where his polling lead is larger. Anyway, some interesting insights on the inner workings of our model here: https://t.co/Mb5btkZ7gc — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Biden's ahead by 5.4 points in our PA polling average. But polls were off there by 4.4 points in 2016. So he's got a little bit of extra cushion, but not much. And a close result could go to the courts there. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also got something else for you this morning: What if Biden loses Pennsylvania? https://t.co/wtfOa2RFCV — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One thing to be aware of is that, by design, our state polling averages are going to get a little bit more aggressive in the final week here. That could be especially true over the next couple days as we get the first post-debate polls in a state, which get weighed more heavily. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%). (Also, who plays draw poker anymore?) — PolitiTweet.org
Jeremy W. Peters @jwpetersNYT
Best election-poker analogy I’ve heard, from a very serious Republican: A Trump win wouldn’t be an inside straight.… https://t.co/vfDjv9dwIv
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ForecasterEnten I am literally eating what are described as "crazy hot" potato chips as I type this. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I think I should make a file of times when I'm pretty sure people's takes aren't great, but also I don't know *quite* enough about the subject to weigh in. Just to see whether the takes really were bad in the end. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It may be worth noting again that Democrats seem to be sending in their mail ballots considerably sooner than Republicans. Democrats are +27.5% on returned ballots so far, but a narrower +12.7% on ballots requested but not yet returned. https://t.co/Ii5lBCeY9j — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, more or less. Biden's lost maybe 0.5 or 1 point in our state polling average. But, Trump has lost time off his clock. So it's pretty much evened out and Biden has been steady at ~87% to win for a week or two now. — PolitiTweet.org
Seth Mnookin @sethmnookin
Am I correct in guessing that this is why the 538 model has stayed steady with Biden @ 87% - gains triggered by mod… https://t.co/lXg4IliGK9
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In the national polls we have so far, Biden's numbers look a bit better in polls taken immediately after the debate than polls taken just beforehand, though not as good as in that early-mid October stretch. Also not a ton of polling, though. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, especially in national polls, Biden had a VERY strong stretch in early/mid-October where he was getting a lot of +12s and stuff. Our model (by design though I'm not sure I love how it played out in practice) started lopping off some of that data after the debate. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
That's mainly based on data that was conducted before the debate, at least in our own average and I'd guess 538 as… https://t.co/JAsiAV9pMr
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow). — PolitiTweet.org
