Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 21:41:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Dems' generic ballot lead has climbed from 6.1 points before the first debate to 7.3 points now. May not sound like a lot, but it's probably worth a half-dozen House seats and 1 Senate seat or something on that order. https://t.co/7mfucyRAFG — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, especially in national polls, Biden had a VERY strong stretch in early/mid-October where he was getting a lot of +12s and stuff. Our model (by design though I'm not sure I love how it played out in practice) started lopping off some of that data after the debate. — PolitiTweet.org

That's mainly based on data that was conducted before the debate, at least in our own average and I'd guess 538 as… https://t.co/JAsiAV9pMr

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated