Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 8, 2021

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Mon Oct 26 22:47:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the national polls we have so far, Biden's numbers look a bit better in polls taken immediately after the debate than polls taken just beforehand, though not as good as in that early-mid October stretch. Also not a ton of polling, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, especially in national polls, Biden had a VERY strong stretch in early/mid-October where he was getting a lot of +12s and stuff. Our model (by design though I'm not sure I love how it played out in practice) started lopping off some of that data after the debate. — PolitiTweet.org

That's mainly based on data that was conducted before the debate, at least in our own average and I'd guess 538 as… https://t.co/JAsiAV9pMr

Posted Oct. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, more or less. Biden's lost maybe 0.5 or 1 point in our state polling average. But, Trump has lost time off his clock. So it's pretty much evened out and Biden has been steady at ~87% to win for a week or two now. — PolitiTweet.org

Am I correct in guessing that this is why the 538 model has stayed steady with Biden @ 87% - gains triggered by mod… https://t.co/lXg4IliGK9

Posted Oct. 27, 2020 Hibernated