Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Tue Oct 27 13:07:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One state that's more important than you'd think for figuring out the relationship between the Electoral College and the popular vote is... California. Clinton won it by 30.1 points whereas Biden's lead in our polling average is "only" 29.6. https://t.co/mlXI3zKjGt https://t.co/wNQ8E3XInN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, Biden actually has decent chances if he loses PA, provided that he wins MI/WI where his polling lead is larger. Anyway, some interesting insights on the inner workings of our model here: https://t.co/Mb5btkZ7gc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe it makes sense. CA is more of a Clinton coalition state than a Biden coalition one, given his somewhat weak performance with Hispanics. But also, polls underestimated Dems in CA in 2016/18 and I'm not sure pollsters care enough about it to have fixed things. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 27, 2020 Hibernated