Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite and the map is out of the40s — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Wow: the new Michigan commission's initial draft is out, and it would be disastrous for Dems, converting the current 7D-7R… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well if Democrats have won the national vote in 7/8 presidential elections, then I guess they should have 7/8 House seats https://t.co/OPC2Hed6BF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: A big shoutout to @davesredist, which has taken the app to the next level and already changed the game for mappers/analysts… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

*Every* time Trump's ratings inched up in 2018-2020, it was dismissed as partisan non-response bias (and even if it was nonresponse bias, no one contemplated the possibility that the high points may have been the unbiased measurements!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

*Every* time Trump's ratings inched up in 2018-2020, it was dismissed as partisan non-response bias (and even if it was, nevermind the possibility that the high points may have been the unbiased measurements!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, partisan non-response bias is a real thing. But the idea that there's basically no change in public opinion, only partisan nonresponse bias, is lazy thinking. And given partisan bias of this website, it basically just means people saying nothing bad ever happens to Dems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But here you've got Biden approval falling from +9 on 8/1 in YouGov to -11 by 9/4. Something real happened, folks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Way back in the day, you needed a little bit of evidence to claim non-response bias was at play. Stability in the YouGov poll, or another party weighted poll, would offer some evidence--even if not conclusive evidence, given other methodological differences — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sure, there's probably some nonresponse bias. There always is! But the amount of focus on partisan nonresponse bias has gotten way, way out of hand on this website as of late https://t.co/jC61A74H97 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A little early to tell, but if you squint at the numbers there's a case that Biden's numbers are inching back up a bit as Afghanistan fades from the news. Here, Monmouth with Biden at 46/46 https://t.co/mPMMSxRBp3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jeneps: “As we have with others, we offered a call with Nicki Minaj and one of our doctors to answer questions she has about the safety… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RyanDEnos: This is an important paper and I think academics and journalists should read it. The stakes of political violence are high… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevzPolitics: #BREAKING - Trinidad & Tobago Health Minister Dr. Terrence Deyalsingh responds to swollen testicle claim made by Trinidad… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One minor note from last night: the networks didn't call the recall until basically the point of mathematical elimination, even though they had an exit poll. It's a telling indicator of how much the partisan split of VBM has degraded typical projection models — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ASDem @jonfavs there were definitely polls in that category, and i'm sympathetic to the challenge! but i don't that's the only thing that went on, either — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonfavs sure, it's possible. that said, some of the pollsters who you don't expect to show those kind of swings--yougov, for ex.--showed recall trailing by only 4 at one point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid @jon_m_rob negative is toward republicans — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob And for 2020--though turnout may be more confounding https://t.co/wPmGgEwPSU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob not going to give you exactly what you want, but here's the easy one https://t.co/VWRki0kiHz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth noting that this would not be the same as 'this race was always a blow out and the polls were wrong,' which I see floating around. Here, the likelier explanation is that there was a significant shift in responses once voting got underway, even if it was inevitable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm reminded, for instance, of those silly questions about whether someone deserves to be reelected, which always underestimates their support by a wide margin. In contrast, you can imagine that Newsom might have always led by 20+ if the ? was Newsom, the D v. Elder, the R — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking at the trendline in this race, I think it's fairly easy to imagine why a yes/no recall question--seemingly just an up or down referendum on Newsom--could be an easy way to register dissatisfaction with him until Dems grappled with actually casting a vote to recall — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And in the end, it may be that the polls underestimated 'no' by a fairly modest margin. Just typing that out, it's hard not to wonder whether acquiesce bias--the tendency for people to say 'yes' to be agreeable--might play a role. But there are many other plausible explanations — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll see what it looks like in the end, of course, but at the moment I don't really see any signs that Newsom fared particularly poorly among Latino voters, as the exit poll suggested. The results in relatively Latino counties appear about the same as 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Election Day vote largely counted, "no" still has a considerable 64%, down from 67 at race call. That may come down a bit--Biden fell about 1.5 pts between now and the outcome. OTOH, mail ballots over the last few days didn't seem as disproportionately GOP as 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, Newsom could lose all of these OC Election Day ballots and still be in the lead there... https://t.co/YvPf1fANm7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mlagos @NickRiccardi not compared to the current round of ballots — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It won't make a difference on the outcome, but it is worth keeping in mind that we still don't have anything on either the size or makeup of the Election Day vote, which is all but assured to knock Newsom down a bit from where he's standing now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

According to the California exit poll, Newsom fared better among white college graduates than nonwhite voters in the state. Newsom isn't even faring better among Latino than non-Latino voters https://t.co/5nLkMnWcvg — PolitiTweet.org