Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 2, 2021

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Wed Sep 15 13:09:05 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And in the end, it may be that the polls underestimated 'no' by a fairly modest margin. Just typing that out, it's hard not to wonder whether acquiesce bias--the tendency for people to say 'yes' to be agreeable--might play a role. But there are many other plausible explanations — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll see what it looks like in the end, of course, but at the moment I don't really see any signs that Newsom fared particularly poorly among Latino voters, as the exit poll suggested. The results in relatively Latino counties appear about the same as 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking at the trendline in this race, I think it's fairly easy to imagine why a yes/no recall question--seemingly just an up or down referendum on Newsom--could be an easy way to register dissatisfaction with him until Dems grappled with actually casting a vote to recall — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021