Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 1, 2021

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Wed Sep 15 13:06:28 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll see what it looks like in the end, of course, but at the moment I don't really see any signs that Newsom fared particularly poorly among Latino voters, as the exit poll suggested. The results in relatively Latino counties appear about the same as 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Election Day vote largely counted, "no" still has a considerable 64%, down from 67 at race call. That may come down a bit--Biden fell about 1.5 pts between now and the outcome. OTOH, mail ballots over the last few days didn't seem as disproportionately GOP as 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And in the end, it may be that the polls underestimated 'no' by a fairly modest margin. Just typing that out, it's hard not to wonder whether acquiesce bias--the tendency for people to say 'yes' to be agreeable--might play a role. But there are many other plausible explanations — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021