Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 2, 2021

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Wed Sep 15 13:14:29 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking at the trendline in this race, I think it's fairly easy to imagine why a yes/no recall question--seemingly just an up or down referendum on Newsom--could be an easy way to register dissatisfaction with him until Dems grappled with actually casting a vote to recall — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And in the end, it may be that the polls underestimated 'no' by a fairly modest margin. Just typing that out, it's hard not to wonder whether acquiesce bias--the tendency for people to say 'yes' to be agreeable--might play a role. But there are many other plausible explanations — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm reminded, for instance, of those silly questions about whether someone deserves to be reelected, which always underestimates their support by a wide margin. In contrast, you can imagine that Newsom might have always led by 20+ if the ? was Newsom, the D v. Elder, the R — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021