Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, this isn't to say the empirical models are useless. Not at all! But they're disappointing if you entered the field having previously thought about forecasting in a scientific settings, like physics or weather. They might not even feel like forecasts at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, we have quite a bit more reason to be confident about the 'seasons' as our fundamentals in the weather than we do about the economy, even if we used it in the same way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The addition of the 'fundamentals' are generally helpful. In weather, maybe adding the time of year to our 'today's temperature-based' model is a nice example. If it's 50 in January, maybe you shouldn't simply bet on 50 +/- 10 tomorrow. But this isn't magic or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You certainly have no way of anticipating crazy things that might not have any precedent in your observed experience, like a hurricane or something. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With this kind of model, you'll basically never really anticipate a surprise. The candidate who leads the polls will basically always be favored, but sometimes they'll lose because sometimes cold fronts do come through — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A poll-based model is almost the weather equivalent of saying 'well, it was 85 degrees today, it'll probably be around 85 degrees tomorrow, plus or minus x' (and you can do your best to dredge through the records to add the right margin of error). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The election forecasts are empirical. They don't really simulate the future and, if you're accustomed to weather forecasting or something, they're barely forecasts at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Weather forecasts are incredible, but they're still panned by most of you despite the incredible advantage of having exact measurement and the laws of physics on their side — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Weather forecasting models are dynamic: they assimilate the data into a picture of the world as it is, and they simulate forward in accordance with the laws of physics. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On a personal note, one thing that @ForecasterEnten and I have in common is that we were both into meteorology before elections, and I don't think it's a coincidence that we're less enthusiastic about social science modeling than the other data types — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's not to say that the economy exerts no influence on the outcome. But let's not pretend that the economy represents the obvious basis for our prior right now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's not to say that I don't think the economy doesn't still exert some influence on the economy. But let's not pretend that it's the economy that adds confidence to our forecasts right now, at least not as a general proposition (It might now, if it's all Trump has) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To some extent, forecasters this cycle are quite lucky! The direction of the economy *happens* to line up with the course of coronavirus in the US. That was not inevitable: other world leaders, despite terrible growth, are quite popular. A different president could have been too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The more dangerous reason we might be out of sample right now isn't because a handful of economic indicators are out of whack, it's because of coronavirus: this may not be usual moment of peace and prosperity that allows sentiment to simply track the course of economic growth — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are other obvious examples, even if there wasn't an election that year: does anyone think George W. Bush would have lost a hypothetical November 2001 election because of the state of the economy? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To take one obvious assumption: relative peace and prosperity. Some fundamentals models are even explicit in recognizing that there might be different rules under different circumstances, like the 'bread and peace' model which controls for Vietnam and Korea — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The 'fundamentals models,' particularly those emerging from academia, are just intended to explains variance in past election results. No one serious interprets them as literal forecasts. To the extent they have predictive power, it's only under a series of assumptions — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A minor point from afar on the debates I see about the fundamentals after yesterday's Q2 numbers: the problem isn't just that the economic data is out of sample, it's that there's no reason to assume that 'fundamentals models' are actual forecasting models — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Perhaps one alternative way of thinking about it is in terms of components of change: perhaps he's being helped as race/protests fade (maybe his worst issue on approval since 2018), but it's being largely canceled out as COVID gets worse at the time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm not a believer in floors and ceilings, but it is interesting that Trump's approval basically fell to its post-2017 low and it hasn't dipped any further, so far https://t.co/sDJEz6t4Gj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob "Markey does much better with those with higher education degrees vs Kennedy who has the advantage with those with a lower education" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NeighratorPony: For all its faults, English does at least have this going for it. https://t.co/RNWG4jlNTM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @spettypi: Trump campaign pauses TV ad spending for 'review' of messaging strategy w ⁦@bkamisar⁩ https://t.co/OtrmpDPoE1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BresPolitico: The House Ethics Cmte reprimands @RepDavid and fines him $50,000 for misusing official funds. This is a very serious puni… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Newsmax is reporting that Herman Cain, who was hospitalized with coronavirus, has died. https://t.co/z6cQ3AeX33 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @alexburnsNYT: Trump attacked the legitimacy of an election he *won* after he won it. There was never any doubt he would attack the legi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @realDonaldTrump: With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Elec… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict I'm not saying it's a serious play to win Ohio. But the goal is plainly to send a signal about Ohio — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Counties = two counties. You don't spend 7 figures on metro markets for two rural counties, and it's not like they're spending in South Bend, Buffalo or Ithica https://t.co/mJGCMn2sAL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, as a few have pointed out, these two markets do reach one or two counties on the otherside of the PA/MI borders. You obviously wouldn't spend a million on ads for those counties, but it's a nice way to convince yourself that the buy does more than advance a tactical goal — PolitiTweet.org