Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Jul 31 19:53:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You certainly have no way of anticipating crazy things that might not have any precedent in your observed experience, like a hurricane or something. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With this kind of model, you'll basically never really anticipate a surprise. The candidate who leads the polls will basically always be favored, but sometimes they'll lose because sometimes cold fronts do come through — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The addition of the 'fundamentals' are generally helpful. In weather, maybe adding the time of year to our 'today's temperature-based' model is a nice example. If it's 50 in January, maybe you shouldn't simply bet on 50 +/- 10 tomorrow. But this isn't magic or something — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated