Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Jul 31 19:48:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A poll-based model is almost the weather equivalent of saying 'well, it was 85 degrees today, it'll probably be around 85 degrees tomorrow, plus or minus x' (and you can do your best to dredge through the records to add the right margin of error). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The election forecasts are empirical. They don't really simulate the future and, if you're accustomed to weather forecasting or something, they're barely forecasts at all — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With this kind of model, you'll basically never really anticipate a surprise. The candidate who leads the polls will basically always be favored, but sometimes they'll lose because sometimes cold fronts do come through — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated