Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Jul 31 19:58:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, we have quite a bit more reason to be confident about the 'seasons' as our fundamentals in the weather than we do about the economy, even if we used it in the same way — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The addition of the 'fundamentals' are generally helpful. In weather, maybe adding the time of year to our 'today's temperature-based' model is a nice example. If it's 50 in January, maybe you shouldn't simply bet on 50 +/- 10 tomorrow. But this isn't magic or something — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, this isn't to say the empirical models are useless. Not at all! But they're disappointing if you entered the field having previously thought about forecasting in a scientific settings, like physics or weather. They might not even feel like forecasts at all — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated