Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Fri Jul 31 19:27:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The more dangerous reason we might be out of sample right now isn't because a handful of economic indicators are out of whack, it's because of coronavirus: this may not be usual moment of peace and prosperity that allows sentiment to simply track the course of economic growth — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are other obvious examples, even if there wasn't an election that year: does anyone think George W. Bush would have lost a hypothetical November 2001 election because of the state of the economy? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To some extent, forecasters this cycle are quite lucky! The direction of the economy *happens* to line up with the course of coronavirus in the US. That was not inevitable: other world leaders, despite terrible growth, are quite popular. A different president could have been too — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated