Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Jul 31 19:30:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To some extent, forecasters this cycle are quite lucky! The direction of the economy *happens* to line up with the course of coronavirus in the US. That was not inevitable: other world leaders, despite terrible growth, are quite popular. A different president could have been too — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The more dangerous reason we might be out of sample right now isn't because a handful of economic indicators are out of whack, it's because of coronavirus: this may not be usual moment of peace and prosperity that allows sentiment to simply track the course of economic growth — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's not to say that I don't think the economy doesn't still exert some influence on the economy. But let's not pretend that it's the economy that adds confidence to our forecasts right now, at least not as a general proposition (It might now, if it's all Trump has) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated