Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Fri Jul 31 19:20:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To take one obvious assumption: relative peace and prosperity. Some fundamentals models are even explicit in recognizing that there might be different rules under different circumstances, like the 'bread and peace' model which controls for Vietnam and Korea — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The 'fundamentals models,' particularly those emerging from academia, are just intended to explains variance in past election results. No one serious interprets them as literal forecasts. To the extent they have predictive power, it's only under a series of assumptions — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are other obvious examples, even if there wasn't an election that year: does anyone think George W. Bush would have lost a hypothetical November 2001 election because of the state of the economy? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 31, 2020 Hibernated