Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another thing that's unusual is that many of these late adds don't have the typical national political experience of a vice president. None ran for president, served in cabinet, or won senate/gov--unlike just about everyone selected in recent memory. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In general, I would not say this is the norm and it could easily be interpreted as a bad sign for the process. Individually, each could be interpreted as a late and merited add. Together, it could betray a certain dissatisfaction with the core options. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One is the continuous expansion of the list of people under serious consider. Usually, you start with a big list and you winnow to finalists. Instead, we keep getting new apparently serious names every week, like Bottoms, Demings, Rice and now at a very late stage, Bass. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One possibility is that there's *nothing* usual, and this is a totally conventional process on a convention timeline But there are a few obvious things that are at least somewhat unusual, and it's worth spelling them out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After all, there's *nothing* weird about announcing a pick just ahead of the convention. The timing here is normal! The only thing that's abnormal is the delayed convention date. So why do we think there's anything unusual at play here? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is possible, but it also got me thinking about an almost academic question: what exactly *is* going on https://t.co/ZW9lgry469 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MichiganKiran i meant with respect to other high quality state polls, but as you point out they do depict a more uniform swing than most other polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But while it's not an implausible pattern, it is a different one: it's a world with a much larger gap between the 'tipping point state' and the nation as a whole, and it's one where Biden's path to victory might better in NC/FL/AZ than WI/PA! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It'll be interesting to see whether this basic pattern holds up as YouGov completes more state polls. It's not an implausible pattern: in fact, it's often a somewhat more uniform shift than the other polling right now, which shows a Biden breakthrough in the Midwest — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CBS/YouGov has only done two 'rust belt' polls: Biden+6 in MI and Trump+1 in OH. The MI number is their worst poll for Biden, while OH is fine. The battleground tracker puts PA/WI more in the disappointing for Biden camp: Biden+5 in PA and Biden+4 in WI https://t.co/0CJlnVHT0T — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CBS/YouGov with Biden+1 in GA and Biden+4 in NC continues a bit of a pattern we're seeing from their state polls and their MRP-based battleground tracker: very strong results for Biden in the Sun Belt, esp for LVs, but without double digit leads in the Rust Belt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten someone's mulling vp candidates under different circumstances — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you don't like Kamala, and you can't get to 'yes' on a good alternative either, then you either settle for Kamala or you wind up going another direction. My read is 'another direction' means Duckworth, as it did during my last thread, but who knows — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is possible they could like someone enough--say, a Rice or a Bass--to overcome that basic question-mark. But there's a high burden of proof, I would think, on candidates in this category. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you don't feel good about her--and you believe the political moment argues for a black woman--then you're left with the news of the last month: digging deep for options, but ultimately facing the reality that the alternatives have limited national political experience — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If they're 'good' with Harris, I'd sure think it's her. She checks all the boxes and the others just don't have the right combination of political experiences to really seriously compete with Harris--if you feel good about her — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In a sense, it does still hinge on this basic decision-tree from last month, which I think remains about right despite the new options since then, like Rice or Bass https://t.co/sa79tTYgcy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If it's a handful of detractors, then this looks like an increasingly desperate effort after prior alternatives failed to supplanted Kamala. If there's broad skepticism, then wow are they looking hard to avoid Harris and it's maybe they just can't get to 'yes' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Depending on your answer here, the emergence of Bass could be either great or terrible news for Harris. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To me, the big question then is about the next tier of folks in Biden world. Is there a big tier of folks who have serious reservations, even beyond the anti-Harris leakers? Is there a big tier struggling to get to 'yes'? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Either way, clearly the detractors are desperate enough to keep raising alternatives, and arguably farfetched ones. Whatever you think of Bass, it's obvious someone's looking hard for alternatives if they're newly considering low-profile congresswomen in late July — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As I read the various VP gossip over the last few weeks, I come away with one simple question: does Harris just face a handful of fierce detractors, or does a wide swath of Biden world have such serious reservations that many struggle to get to 'yes' and argue for her? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos I would be frustrated, though as you documented already I think it is fair to say that the academic forecasters haven't always been clear about the limits of their products, all the way up until the moment when those limits come into sight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos fivethirtyeight models do sometimes include a dynamic element, even if the basis is still empirical. the primary model, for instance, accounted for momentum and the effect of winning various states. https://t.co/LO7Pz4Hzrq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos the theoretical distinction is noteworthy but i think the key distinction is whether the model is dynamic. the kind of underlying modeling--empirical, theoretical--is certainly correlated with the ease of dynamic modeling, but technically it's not the obstacle — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos and while i certainly agree that empiricism, broadly defined, is basically the only way to accumulate scientific knowledge, i don't think that means that a good forecast is the same as a good empirical model for a similar set of reasons — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos i agree that you would be making a prediction, but i don't think that's an inherent property of the model; similarly an empirical model isn't necessarily bad if it isn't predictive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos sorry replied this to myself, not you (and sorry if i was rude; it's been a bad day and shouldn't have been snippy) https://t.co/zrdO78Zisf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos this isn't my only point, but maybe here's another way to phrase one: people are entitled to make a forecast with an empirical model but that model, itself, is not a forecast. it is not inherently predictive or forward looking. it is explaining the past not simulating the future. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos i think maybe you should re-read it? — PolitiTweet.org