Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Aug 01 12:47:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos fivethirtyeight models do sometimes include a dynamic element, even if the basis is still empirical. the primary model, for instance, accounted for momentum and the effect of winning various states. https://t.co/LO7Pz4Hzrq — PolitiTweet.org

On a pedantic but still positive note, I also think it's much more deserving of the term 'forecast' than most empir… https://t.co/OueIs2mLzZ

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos the theoretical distinction is noteworthy but i think the key distinction is whether the model is dynamic. the kind of underlying modeling--empirical, theoretical--is certainly correlated with the ease of dynamic modeling, but technically it's not the obstacle — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos I would be frustrated, though as you documented already I think it is fair to say that the academic forecasters haven't always been clear about the limits of their products, all the way up until the moment when those limits come into sight — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated