Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, in the end the Democrats will probably need to do better in advanced voting than they did in the general, simply to makeup for their deficit in the general. And even then, election day could be more GOP to cancel it out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democrats are now doing notably better in in-person voting, with Biden winning an estimated 57% of in-person early vote v. 53.5 percent at this stage of the general election. But absentee voters represent a lower share of the vote to all but perfectly cancel it out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Using this data and the voter file, our estimate is that the voters who have turned out so far would have voted essentially identically to the same point in the general election (Biden 59.4 v. 59.3), despite all the various demographic shifts and changes in vote method — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over all, NYT/Siena respondents who have voted early in the runoff are Biden 57, Trump 35 in Sept/Oct., which is about the same as our respondents who voted early by this point of the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It can also help us synthesize some of the conflicting bits of info (what wins out if you have an older electorate v. a slightly more diverse electorate, etc.; lower absentee voting but no change in dem pct, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At this stage of early voting, we also now have a new tool for analyzing the vote: our NYT/Siena data, linked to absentee records. We now have 384 respondents who have voted early, which can help us untangle ways that these voters are unique, controlling for demographics/method — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking ahead, we're about to lose a certain amount of clarity in our day-by-day comparison, since the holidays will dampen (and outright eliminate) turnout on GOP-friendly days. We'll probably watch the Dems expand their lead v. the general, and then the GOP try and claw it back — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the moment, the higher Black share of in person early voting is enough to cancel out the smaller share of mail-in absentee voters, who were overwhelmingly Democratic in the general--giving Democrats, in my view, a slightly more favorable electorate at this stage of voting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As most of you know, the Black turnout in Georgia (and nationwide) was relatively weak v. other groups in the general election. That's been a matter of some consternation for progressives who wish it weren't so, but it's also the big source of upside for Democrats in this runoff — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As most of you know, the Black turnout in Georgia (and nationwide) was relatively weak in the general election. That's been a matter of some consternation for progressives who wish it weren't so, but it's also the big source of upside for Democrats in this runoff — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Black share of in-person early voters was basically identical to the general election over the first few days of voting, but that began to diverge late last week--and even more so over the weekend, which is typically a strong period for Black turnout in Georgia https://t.co/w3RU2drxZG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot for Democrats to like in the early voting data over the last few days, as they are now running ahead of where they stood at a similar point of the general election--thanks to a stronger Black turnout https://t.co/DkEOFQejtB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Elaijuh: Remember the PA mail ballot deadline extension that the state Supreme Court ordered and PA GOP appealed to SCOTUS? Those 10K… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @minakimes: seahawks twitter after every close win https://t.co/5zpmEITsFn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: During the meeting, the president asked about Flynn’s suggestion of deploying the military, those briefed said. That was als… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: SCOOP - Sidney Powell was in Oval Office last night as POTUS discussed making her special counsel for election fraud. @Kanno… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid I think that number is ballots cast not request — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid Looks like it’s about 80% to me — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid Pretty sure it’s just wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And on a few questions: --demographically, vt is similar to the general so far; similar enough to avoid parsing at this stage --i'm not interested in the new voters tbh. in fact, i'm not sure there's ever been an election where i'm less interested in new voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We won't know how either of these trends wind up working themselves out until the end of the early voting process. And even then, we're not going to be able to say too much. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Until then (or until early voting drops off a lot), Dems will run a bit behind the general election on the total advanced vote, including abs+in person. Again, I'm not sure they should be expected to run even yet, given abs dropoff. But in the end, this is the thing to watch https://t.co/tG3ZOuXpoV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After yesterday, there's now no difference in the partisan composition of in-person early voters v. the general election. And again, if the absentee vote drops off more than early vote, Dems will want to compensate by finishing better in early than they did in the general https://t.co/nIxfB8DH80 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's some case that might be happening. Over all, 8% of in-person early voters were ge abs voters, and this is a Dem group. And this week, there's been a bit of a trend toward Dems v. the ge, with yesterday Dems plainly faring better for the first time https://t.co/Dl2kIJd1Er — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If it does turn out that the early voting drops by less than absentee voting, then Democrats will probably need to do better in the in-person early vote than they did for the general, as some number of ge absentee voters turn out in person instead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, of course, if in-person and election day voting drop just as much (or more), then this isn't actually an issue for Democrats at all. That would have been a very reasonable assumption before early voting. Now I'm not totally sure! We'll have to wait and see — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One is that there are fewer absentee votes--and those are heavily Democratic. This is expected: far fewer realistic opportunities for voters to request a ballot for this special than the general. And some counties may be behind https://t.co/1x6B9Wy1YP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As I've said, the big takeaway is that the turnout looks like it will be healthy and high, and it's not obvious who it will help v. the general. As I've mentioned, there are crosscutting patterns at play that make it difficult to sort out where we'll end up. Let's look at a few — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Cumulatively, we're still running ahead of the general election on in-person early voting, but I don't think anyone expects that to last--and there's a very long time left for that flip to happen https://t.co/QWmmQxjhS4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another day of strong early voting in Georgia, with another 154k voters turning out in person yesterday. That's similar to but slightly behind the fourth day of early voting in the general, which was at 164k — PolitiTweet.org